The Austin housing market is entering November with clear evidence of slowing momentum after a brief October lift. What appeared to be a rebound has now leveled into a neutral-to-softening phase marked by steady inventory growth, cautious buyer activity, and continued price pressure. The Activity Index remains just below 20 percent, showing that while buyers are still engaging, new supply is entering faster than it can be absorbed. Even as national housing reports remain delayed during the ongoing government shutdown, Austin’s local data provides full visibility into market conditions. New listings continue to outnumber pending contracts, months of inventory are holding near 5.6, and nearly 60 percent of active listings have already reduced their price. These combined indicators reflect the most accurate pulse of Central Texas housing today. 

Market Conditions at a Glance

Austin began the week under cool skies but with a cautious lift in housing activity. The Activity Index, which measures the share of listings under contract, climbed just under 20 percent. That slight improvement from September to October is rare and positive, even though the market remains stuck below the 20 percent level that signals strong demand.

Builders continue to influence market behavior. Out of 15,756 active listings, about 27 percent are new construction and 73 percent resale. New construction carries an Activity Index of 25.79 while resale sits near 16.53. Builder incentives are shaping the numbers. Dream Finders Homes recently advertised a temporary 1.99 percent introductory rate on a 3-2-1 buy-down, which helps buyers qualify while keeping the headline price higher. Roughly 58 percent of active listings have already dropped their price at least once. Builders are raising prices slightly now so they can promote bigger discounts later.

Understanding the New Listing to Pending Ratio

Every Monday Touch Point begins with the New Listing to Pending Ratio. It compares everything new or back on the market to the number that goes under contract. Two weeks ago that ratio stood at 0.79 compared to 0.88 last year, meaning inventory is still growing faster than it’s being absorbed. Pending sales have improved for three consecutive weeks, but new listings continue to outpace demand. Year to date, Austin has seen more than fifteen thousand additional listings than contracts, the largest gap since 2010.

December usually brings improvement. Over the past 25 years, 23 Decembers have outperformed November as sellers pull listings and buyers act on discounts. Ratios near 1.0 are likely by late year as supply falls sharply.

Inventory and Regional Breakdown

Austin now sits at about 5.6 months of inventory, a level that has stopped falling and remains steady. Half of Central Texas cities fall within the contraction zone between 15 and 20 percent Activity Index, and another third are below 15 percent, which signals paralysis. Only Driftwood is balanced near 25 percent, equal to roughly four and a half months of supply. More than half of resale ZIP codes are in stall or decline phases. Downtown Austin carries more than 14 months of inventory, while outer markets such as Smithville and Spicewood are between 15 and 17 months.

October’s Record Price Surge

October 2025 posted an 8.5 percent month-over-month price gain, the strongest October on record. The next closest years were 2010 and 2003, each around five percent during rebound cycles. The jump reflects a split market. The upper quartile of homes is up more than six percent year over year, while the lower quartile is flat or declining. Inflation and limited high-end supply have lifted median prices without creating a true market recovery. Agents need to clarify this for clients. A price surge in the data does not mean every neighborhood is gaining value.

City Level Highlights

Cedar Park is now negative across all price percentiles, down roughly six percent overall and showing new short-sale activity near the 75th percentile price point. Homes purchased in 2021 to 2023 are becoming new distressed comparables. Dripping Springs shows the opposite trend with solid strength above the 55th percentile. These opposite outcomes reinforce why agents must know their ZIP and segment instead of relying on metro-wide averages.

Macro Forces and Outlook

The ten-year Treasury sits near 4.1 percent and mortgage rates remain volatile as Washington debates reopening the government. A soft inflation reading could help rates pull back temporarily, but uncertainty persists. Even with rate fluctuations, December should bring more opportunities as sellers price aggressively and builders push end-of-year incentives. The Austin market remains logical even when uneven. Demand exists but it is selective. The agents who master data and communicate context will lead the market forward.​