Market Ratio Rebounds Despite Inventory Surge
Over the last several weeks, we've seen a dramatic improvement in the new listing-to-pending ratio, climbing from a recent low of 0.67 up to 0.79. That alone would typically suggest strong market momentum. But the reality is more nuanced. While pending contracts outpaced last year for four consecutive weeks, the market’s ratio has been held back by a surge of new listings entering the market. Inventory growth has outpaced demand, pushing the ratio down even as buyer activity improves. For example, this past week, we had 952 new listings by 10:00 AM Monday, and we’re on pace to surpass last year's total of 1,002 listings. That means it will mark the 27th positive week out of the last 31 for new listing volume. But with 249 pendings and a current ratio of 0.54, we’re still trailing last year’s 0.82. Expect that pending count to rise over the coming days due to late MLS updates, likely narrowing the year-over-year gap to just 1.5–2%.
Open House Strategy: It’s About Energy
A quick word to our agents running open houses: your attitude shows. You can spot the “Agent A” within seconds—obligated, unengaged, and disconnected. On the flip side, “Agent B” is present, prepared, and enthusiastic. That choice impacts buyer engagement more than any sign-in sheet or snack spread ever will. If you're not going to show up with energy, don’t do it. Delegate it to someone who can. You owe your seller and the visitors that much.
Monthly Year-over-Year Trends
July showed mixed results when compared to July 2024. While active listings were up 15.8%, the number of properties going under contract showed its third straight monthly year-over-year gain—albeit modest. The sold count, however, took a sharp dive, down 14.9% from June, marking the second-worst month-over-month drop in 25 years. Most of this can be attributed to builder activity, which front-loaded closings into May and June, leaving July unusually soft. Still, the median sold price came in at $440,000, down $4,900 from June. That’s a 1.1% drop month-over-month and a $5,000 decline year-over-year. Meanwhile, the average sold price is now down nearly $100K from the market peak—a 14.57% drop. The median is down a full 20% from its peak, which puts us 38 months into a market correction that is already deeper than what we saw from 2007–2013.
Inventory and Activity Index: Forward-Looking Metrics
We peaked at 18,146 active listings on June 30. As expected, we’re now entering the seasonal drawdown phase. Active listings dropped to 17,697, and they’ll likely continue to decline into January. The important metric here isn’t just inventory—it’s the activity index. We’re currently holding at 19.5% market-wide, with resale lagging at just 16.7%. New construction, however, makes up 25% of active listings and a third of pendings, driving the stronger market segment. What’s fascinating is the shifting momentum in specific areas. Cedar Park, for example, has seen its activity index collapse from 41.5% earlier this year to just 19.3%. Meanwhile, Lakeway has rebounded, and 78703 has dipped back into seller market territory with just 5.28 months of inventory.
Mortgage Rates, Cap Rates, and Market Outlook
Last week’s bond market gave us a much-needed break. Mortgage rates dropped sharply due to a terrible jobs report, with FHA now approaching 6%. If the trend continues, we could dip below that threshold, triggering renewed buyer urgency. Even more encouraging: 18 zip codes now have cap rates exceeding the six-month Treasury yield—a jump from 10 zip codes just a few weeks ago. As rates continue to shift and affordability improves, investor interest will likely rise, especially in markets like Hutto, Kyle, Elgin, and Smithville. We’re watching the market evolve in real time. If the Fed moves on rates in September, we could see more tailwind into Q4. But either way, our role remains the same: track the leading indicators, stay grounded in the data, and help clients make the best decision possible.
