Today’s Austin real estate market update shows 13,216 active residential listings across the Austin area MLS. That is 11.8 percent higher than this same time last year, when active inventory stood at 11,818. While we are well below the all time inventory peak of 18,146 reached in June 2025, supply remains meaningfully elevated compared to the tight conditions seen in 2021 and early 2022. This matters because inventory sets the tone for negotiating power, pricing discipline, and overall market momentum.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for February 13, 2026.
Nearly half of all active listings, 49.1 percent, have had at least one price drop. That statistic alone tells you the market is still working through excess supply. Sellers who entered the market optimistic are adjusting expectations to meet buyer demand. In a strong expansion phase, price reductions are rare. In today’s Austin housing environment, price adjustments are becoming part of the strategy to compete.
When we break inventory down further, 4,042 of the active listings are new construction and 9,174 are resale homes. Builders remain aggressive with incentives, rate buy downs, and closing cost assistance. Resale sellers are competing not only with other homeowners but also with well capitalized builders who can offer financial flexibility. That dynamic continues to pressure resale pricing, especially in outer suburban markets.
Year to date, cumulative new listings from January through February total 5,421. That is down 30.7 percent year over year and 11.1 percent below the historical average. Fewer sellers are coming to market compared to last year. On the surface, that might sound supportive for prices. But demand has also slowed materially.
Cumulative pending listings from January through February total 4,356. That is down 33.9 percent year over year and 27.0 percent below average. Even though today’s snapshot shows pending listings at 3,847, which is slightly higher than last year by 0.9 percent, the broader trend for the year remains soft. Demand has not returned to expansion levels.
The Activity Index, which measures pending contracts relative to active listings, currently stands at 22.5 percent. Last year at this time it was 24.4 percent. That represents a 7.6 percent decline in activity. Historically, an Activity Index above 30 percent signals expansion and rising prices. Between 25 and 30 percent is considered balanced. Between 20 and 25 percent signals softening. Today at 22.5 percent, Austin real estate sits firmly in the softening range. Resale specifically is even weaker at 20.09 percent.
This tells us that buyers are active but cautious. They are negotiating. They are shopping. They are not chasing listings with urgency.
The monthly new listing to pending ratio is currently 0.59. The 25 year average is 0.82. For the year to date, the ratio sits at 0.69. When this ratio falls below historical norms, it indicates supply is outpacing absorption. We are not in crisis territory, but we are clearly below the long term equilibrium level.
Months of inventory now stands at 4.68 compared to 4.11 one year ago, a 14 percent increase. In general, four to five months of inventory reflects a neutral to slight buyer advantage. But that is the metro average. Several submarkets are much higher, especially in outer cities where months of inventory exceeds seven, eight, or even ten months. The higher the months of inventory, the greater the downward pricing pressure.
Sales volume gives additional context. A total of 1,985 properties sold in February. Cumulative sold properties from January through February total 3,655. That is down 5.7 percent year over year but still 9.9 percent above the long term average. In other words, the market is slower than last year but not historically frozen.
When adjusting for population, cumulative sold per 100,000 residents stands at 137. That is 7.7 percent below last year and 21.5 percent below the long term average. Per 1,000 Realtors, the number is 208, which is slightly up 1.1 percent year over year but still 18.3 percent below average. There are more agents competing for fewer transactions than in prior expansion cycles.
Pricing remains the most important headline for the Austin housing forecast. The average sold price in February is 559,172 dollars. The median sold price is 435,000 dollars. At the May 2022 peak, the median reached 550,000 dollars. That means Austin’s median price is down 20.91 percent, or approximately 115,000 dollars, from peak. The average price is down 18 percent from its 2022 high.
This correction has restored some affordability, but not fully. According to the market projection model based on Austin’s 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.648 percent, if today represents the bottom at 435,000 dollars, it would take approximately 64 months, or until May 2031, to return to the prior median peak. That projection assumes steady compound growth and no additional shocks.
Interestingly, the bottom 25 percent of homes by price are down 6.25 percent year over year, while the top 25 percent are up 1.18 percent. This tells us that higher end homes are showing more pricing stability compared to entry level properties. That may reflect higher income buyer resilience and less rate sensitivity at the top of the market.
City level appreciation also shows stress. Only 6 cities are up year over year while 24 are down. The Home Value Index indicates that 76.7 percent of cities are still classified as overvalued relative to fundamentals. Only 2 cities are considered undervalued.
The absorption rate, or sold to active ratio, currently sits at 14.96 percent. The historical average is 31.54 percent. That gap illustrates the slowdown clearly. When absorption falls below 15 percent, negotiating leverage shifts heavily toward buyers.
The Market Flow Score, which combines multiple turnover efficiency metrics, stands at 3.21 out of 10. The historical average is 6.58. Lower scores reflect slower inventory turnover and weaker momentum. Today’s Austin real estate forecast points toward a market that is functioning but not accelerating.
For buyers, this environment offers leverage. Nearly half of listings have price reductions. Inventory is elevated. Months of inventory is above last year. Negotiation opportunities exist in many submarkets. However, buyers should still focus on long term fundamentals, location, and realistic pricing rather than trying to time the absolute bottom.
For sellers, pricing strategy is critical. Homes that are positioned correctly from day one are still selling. Homes that overshoot the market are accumulating days on market and then reducing price. The data shows clearly that the market is price sensitive.
For investors, the reset from peak values may create opportunities, especially if long term appreciation trends hold near historical averages. However, short term appreciation expectations should remain modest based on current absorption and activity levels.
This Austin market update reinforces one theme. We are in a corrective phase, not a collapse. Supply remains elevated. Demand is selective. Pricing has adjusted meaningfully from peak. The Austin housing forecast suggests gradual normalization will take time and discipline.
