Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – February 11, 2026

Active residential listings currently sit at 12,988. According to the chart on page 3 of the briefing, that is down 5,158 homes from the previous high of 18,146 reached on June 30, 2025, but it is still 11.4 percent higher than this same time last year when inventory was 11,658. In other words, we are below last summer’s extreme peak, yet still meaningfully above 2025 levels. This tells us that sellers have not fully pulled back, even though buyer demand has cooled.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for February 11, 2026.

Nearly half of all active listings have had at least one price drop. Page 4 shows that 49.7 percent of all active homes have reduced their price at least once. That is a clear signal that sellers are chasing the market down rather than leading it. When almost one out of every two listings has adjusted price, it reflects resistance from buyers and an overall affordability constraint in the Austin housing market.

Cumulative new listings from January through February total 4,991. That is down 36.2 percent year over year and 17.9 percent below the long term average. Sellers are clearly more cautious compared to last year. However, demand has not surged to absorb even this lower listing volume. Cumulative pending contracts stand at 4,107, which is down 37.7 percent year over year and 31.1 percent below average. Both supply and demand are down sharply compared to historical norms, but demand remains weaker relative to inventory.

The Activity Index gives us a clean measure of demand relative to supply. It is currently 22.8 percent compared to 24.3 percent one year ago, a 6.3 percent decline. In resale specifically, the Activity Index is 20.38 percent. According to the market phase chart on page 10, that places resale squarely in the softening range, very close to the contraction or danger zone that begins at 20 percent. In practical terms, this means homes are moving, but not fast enough to support broad price appreciation.

The new listing to pending ratio is another critical indicator. The monthly ratio currently stands at 0.62. For the year to date, the ratio is 0.70 compared to a 25 year average of 0.82. Historically, when this ratio falls below average, it indicates that listings are not converting into contracts at a healthy pace. The cumulative difference between new listings and pending contracts is 884. That means there are 884 more new listings than pending deals so far this year. That imbalance builds upward pressure on inventory.

Months of inventory now sits at 4.61 compared to 4.05 one year ago, a 13.8 percent increase. According to the market type chart on page 17, resale markets in the 5 to 6 month range fall into the neutral to buyer advantage category. Austin overall is right on the edge of that transition. Some submarkets are much higher. Several cities and zip codes are well above 7 or even 9 months of inventory, clearly in buyer control territory. This uneven distribution tells us that pricing strategy must be hyper local.

Sales volume also reflects this slower environment. There were 1,927 homes sold in February. Cumulative sold properties from January through February total 3,582. That is down 7.6 percent year over year, though still 7.8 percent above the long term average. However, when adjusted per 100,000 population, sales are down 9.5 percent year over year and 23 percent below average. Per 1,000 Realtors, transactions are down nearly 20 percent below average. That means the pie is smaller and competition among agents is higher.

Prices continue to show the long term correction from the 2022 peak. The average sold price in February is 566,960 dollars. In May 2022, the average was 681,939 dollars. That represents a 16.86 percent decline, or roughly 115,000 dollars off the peak. The median sold price is now 427,500 dollars compared to 550,000 dollars in May 2022. That is a 22.27 percent drop, or 123,000 dollars below the peak. For anyone studying the Austin real estate forecast, this is a clear sign that the correction phase has already delivered meaningful price adjustments.

When comparing median prices to 36 months prior, we are currently at negative 1.72 percent. That suggests we are still slightly below where we were three years ago. In other words, much of the appreciation from the surge period has been erased. The long term projection model assumes a 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.578 percent. If we assume today’s median of 427,500 dollars represents a bottom, it would take approximately 69 months, or until October 2031, to return to the previous peak of roughly 550,487 dollars. That is a sober and realistic Austin housing forecast based on historical appreciation trends.

There is also a clear divergence between high and low price segments. The bottom 25th percentile has seen prices decline 5.76 percent year over year, while the top 25th percentile has actually increased 1.37 percent. This tells us that entry level buyers are under more pressure from rates and affordability, while higher end buyers may still have stronger balance sheets and flexibility.

City level appreciation data shows that only 7 cities are up year over year while 23 are down. The Home Value Index indicates that 86.7 percent of cities are considered overvalued, with only a small fraction fairly valued or undervalued. This suggests that even after the correction, prices may still be adjusting in certain areas.

The absorption rate, which measures sold listings divided by active listings, is 14.87 percent. The historical average is 31.54 percent. This is one of the clearest signs of current market weakness. When less than 15 percent of inventory is being absorbed in a given period, the market favors buyers and sellers must compete aggressively on price and condition.

The Market Flow Score, currently 3.15 compared to a historical average of 6.58, reinforces this view. This composite index measures how efficiently inventory is turning over. A score near 3 indicates a slow, supply heavy market with limited momentum. This is not a freeze, but it is far from expansion.

For buyers, this Austin market update signals opportunity. There is leverage in negotiation, especially in areas with higher months of inventory. For sellers, pricing correctly from day one is critical. The data shows that waiting to reduce later often results in chasing the market downward. For investors, long term fundamentals remain tied to population growth and job expansion, but short term appreciation should not be assumed. This Austin real estate forecast remains data driven. Inventory is elevated relative to demand, price corrections from peak have already occurred, and recovery will likely follow a normal historical appreciation curve rather than a rapid surge.

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FAQ Section

Is the Austin housing market crashing in 2026?

The data does not show a crash, but it clearly shows a correction and rebalancing phase. Inventory is up 11.4 percent year over year and nearly half of listings have reduced their price. The median sold price is down more than 22 percent from the May 2022 peak. However, sales are still occurring and cumulative sold properties remain above long term averages. This suggests a controlled correction rather than a market collapse.

Are home prices in Austin still falling?

Yes, compared to the 2022 peak, prices are still lower. The current median sold price of 427,500 dollars is significantly below the 550,000 dollar peak. Year over year changes vary by city and price tier, with lower priced homes experiencing more pressure. The Austin housing forecast suggests stabilization may occur, but broad appreciation will likely take time.

Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market in Austin right now?

With 4.61 months of inventory and an absorption rate of 14.87 percent, the market is leaning toward buyers in many submarkets. The Activity Index at 22.8 percent places resale in a softening phase. Some zip codes remain more balanced, but overall conditions favor buyers who are patient and strategic.

Will Austin home values recover to their peak?

Using a 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.578 percent, projections show it could take about 69 months to return to the prior median peak. That places a potential recovery timeline around late 2031 if today represents the bottom. This projection assumes steady historical growth, not another rapid surge.

What does this mean for the Austin real estate forecast long term?

Long term, Austin housing fundamentals remain tied to population growth, job expansion, and infrastructure investment. Short term, supply is elevated and demand remains cautious. The Austin real estate forecast suggests a gradual normalization rather than rapid appreciation. Buyers and sellers should base decisions on data, not headlines.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.