Austin housing continues to rebalance under the weight of elevated supply, slower absorption, and buyer hesitation as we move deeper into the fourth quarter.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 14, 2025.
The Austin real estate market is closing out mid November with a clear pattern that has been building all year. Higher inventory, softer demand, and longer absorption timelines continue to define the day to day experience for buyers, sellers, and real estate agents across the region. With 15,588 active listings on the market today, Austin is carrying one of the largest November inventories in more than a decade, and it is reshaping how every participant should think about pricing, negotiation, and timing. This environment gives buyers more room to breathe while forcing sellers to adjust expectations to the new reality of a slower moving market. As the Austin housing market continues to normalize after the rapid run up of 2020 to 2022, this moment offers one of the clearest snapshots we have seen of the transition underway.
Active inventory sits at 15,588, which is 14.3 percent higher than this time last year. Even more telling, we remain only about twenty five hundred listings below the peak of 18,146 reached at the end of June. The market has not meaningfully tightened since summer. Instead, inventory has stayed elevated while demand has softened just enough to keep the pressure on sellers. More than half of all active listings, exactly 58.3 percent, have had at least one price drop, which reflects both the depth of competition and the sensitivity of buyers to overpriced homes. Compared to the rapid fire pace of the pandemic years, this environment feels noticeably different. Homes that would have drawn immediate offers three years ago may now sit several weeks or months before seeing serious activity. That change in tempo is one of the most important storylines in today’s austin real estate market update.
Supply is not only elevated but also continues to outpace demand on a year to date basis. From January through November, Austin recorded 46,537 new listings. That is 2.5 percent higher than last year and nearly 20 percent above the long term average. Pending sales tell a different story. Year over year, cumulative pending contracts are down 5.2 percent. While pending contracts are still slightly above average, they are not keeping up with the flow of new listings entering the system. That imbalance directly translates into rising months of inventory, softer pricing outcomes, and longer marketing windows. For anyone watching the direction of the Austin housing forecast, this widening gap between new supply and actual demand remains one of the most reliable indicators to follow.
The Activity Index reinforces the story. The index for 2025 sits at 19.9 percent compared to 22.7 percent at this time last year. That 12.3 percent decline reflects slower movement at every level of the market. The resale segment in particular is operating deep inside the softening to contraction ranges. Only a small percentage of Austin area cities and zip codes remain in expansion or equilibrium territory. The majority have slipped into the 15 to 20 percent activity bands where rising supply and sluggish buyer engagement create downward pressure on prices. With 53 percent of tracked areas sitting in contraction and another 37 percent categorized as crisis level activity with less than 15 percent absorption, the larger pattern is unmistakable. Austin is in a supply heavy environment where buyers control the pace and sellers must lead with value, presentation, and realistic pricing.
Months of Inventory adds another layer to the picture. The region sits at 5.52 months compared to 4.83 last year, an increase of 14.4 percent. Re sale inventory alone is operating well within the buyer leaning phases of the market cycle. A significant percentage of areas remain in the neutral to buyer advantage zones, where days on market stretch longer and negotiation leverage tilts toward the purchaser. A growing number of areas have crossed into buyer control conditions with more than 270 days of inventory. These conditions give buyers significant leverage on price, concessions, and repairs. For sellers, the message is straightforward. Homes that are priced ahead of the market or that lack strong positioning will fall behind quickly. Strategic presentation and accurate pricing are now essential, not optional.
This matches the trend we see in the Monthly New Listing to Pending Ratio, which currently sits at 0.72. That figure is below the twenty five year average of 0.82 and is exactly where many stagnant markets settle before prices start to drift lower. A ratio under one means more listings are hitting the market than contracts are being written. When that pattern persists, inventory builds and sellers must eventually adjust to where buyers are willing to transact. Year to date, Austin has recorded a gap of 7,240 more new listings than pending contracts, reinforcing that we are in a supply heavy stretch rather than a demand driven cycle.
Closed sales also reflect the shift. November’s average sold price is 607,571, down nearly 11 percent from the May 2022 peak of 681,939. The median sold price is 450,000, which is 100,000 below the same peak period. That is an 18.18 percent decline from the top of the market. Price movement always lags inventory, and what we are seeing today is the downstream effect of two years of elevated supply combined with more cautious buyer behavior. Tracking the median sold price against the same period thirty six months ago, Austin is still down 2.17 percent. That pattern is consistent with a slow grinding correction rather than a sharp reversal. For anyone studying the austin real estate forecast, the forward looking interpretation is simple. If Austin were to rebound from this point at the long term 4.981 percent appreciation rate, it would take roughly fifty three months to return to the prior peak, which projects to around March 2030.
Different segments of the market are reacting differently to these conditions. Price tiers are not moving in unison. The bottom twenty fifth percentile of the market has seen little price change year over year, while price per square foot has slipped by nearly two percent. The top twenty fifth percentile, on the other hand, is seeing modest gains, with prices up just over six percent and price per square foot up more than three percent. Higher end buyers continue to remain active and more insulated from affordability restraints, while the lower and middle segments feel the impact of mortgage rates, payment sensitivity, and wage to price disconnects. For sellers in luxury segments, the market has been more forgiving than the median priced tier. For sellers in the entry or mid level segments, stronger pricing discipline is crucial.
Market efficiency metrics reinforce the broader slowdown. The Absorption Rate is currently 16.57 percent, far below the historical average of 31.70 percent. That tells us that buyers are purchasing roughly half the share of available inventory compared to long term norms. The Market Flow Score of 4.72 also sits well below its historical average of 6.59, indicating weaker turnover and slower velocity. When these indicators fall this low for this long, they typically precede continued price softening unless demand meaningfully accelerates. We are not yet seeing signs of meaningful demand acceleration. Instead, we are watching a market that is stabilizing at a slower pace where pricing must follow buyer expectations.
Taken together, today’s update provides a clear and data grounded view of where Austin housing stands. Buyers have more control than at any point since the pre pandemic years. They have choices, leverage, and time. Sellers must price sharply and prepare for longer days on market. Investors must underwrite conservatively based on realistic rents and longer stabilization windows. Real estate agents must communicate that this is a market shaped by fundamentals rather than emotion. Inventory is high, absorption is slow, and pricing is adjusting accordingly. As the region moves toward year end, we should expect more of the same unless demand surges in an unexpected way.
