Austin’s housing market is entering a new stage of balance, where growing inventory, slower absorption, and softer prices are defining a clear shift toward buyer control.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 11, 2025.
The Austin housing market is continuing its steady move toward a buyer-tilted environment. Active residential listings have climbed to 15,634, which is a 13.8 percent increase compared to this time last year. Pending contracts are down by 4.1 percent, showing that sales are not keeping pace with new supply. The result is a market that feels noticeably slower, more negotiable, and more price-sensitive. Buyers now have a wide range of options, while sellers must work harder to attract attention through pricing and presentation.
More than half of all active listings, 58.4 percent, have seen at least one price reduction. That figure tells the real story of today’s Austin housing market. The strong demand of 2021 and 2022 has cooled, replaced by buyers who are cautious, analytical, and value-driven. Even though the number of new listings year-to-date is up only 1.6 percent, the number of pending contracts has fallen by 6.2 percent. This imbalance adds up to roughly 7,254 more homes listed than placed under contract, building the kind of inventory pressure that keeps prices in check.
This trend is reflected in the New Listing to Pending Ratio, which is now at 0.71. The 25-year average for this ratio is 0.82, meaning Austin is running below its long-term balance point. When this ratio falls below 0.8, it suggests that supply is rising faster than demand. In practical terms, for every 100 new listings that hit the market, only about 70 go under contract. That leaves an increasing number of properties sitting longer, contributing to a slower-moving, buyer-favored environment.
The Activity Index, which measures how many homes are under contract compared to total inventory, has declined to 19.7 percent, down from 22.5 percent a year ago. When this index drops below 20 percent, it enters what analysts call the contraction zone. That phase reflects a market where listings outnumber buyers, and prices often adjust downward to find equilibrium. Within the resale segment, the index is just 16.79 percent, signaling the weakest absorption since before the pandemic. The new construction segment performs better at 26.73 percent, supported by builder incentives, rate buydowns, and flexible terms that help move standing inventory.
The Months of Inventory, a measure of how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current pace, has increased from 4.87 months in 2024 to 5.54 months in 2025. This 13.8 percent rise means the Austin market has shifted into neutral territory, with a lean toward buyers. When inventory surpasses five months, buyers begin to gain leverage, while sellers lose some pricing control. Many suburban and outlying areas, such as Lago Vista, Marble Falls, and Burnet, now exceed eight to ten months of supply. In contrast, central Austin remains near five months, showing slightly better balance but still slower than a year ago.
The Absorption Rate, which tracks the percentage of homes sold relative to total listings, has weakened to 16.51 percent, far below the historical average of 31.7 percent. This means only about 17 of every 100 homes on the market sell during a given period. For sellers, that translates to longer listing times and a need for sharper pricing strategies. For buyers, it means more options, more negotiating power, and less urgency.
Sales volume reflects the same pattern. Austin recorded 2,292 closed sales in November, bringing the year-to-date total to 27,925 homes sold. That number is 3.2 percent lower than last year, though still 7.9 percent above the long-term average. When adjusted for population growth, however, per-capita sales have declined. There are now about 1,090 homes sold per 100,000 residents, down 20 percent from historical norms. This slowdown shows how increased population and agent counts have not yet translated into higher transaction flow.
Prices continue to adjust, reflecting a market that is finding its footing after years of extreme acceleration. The average sold price in November is $608,172, which is a 10.8 percent drop from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price has fallen to $460,000, representing a 16.4 percent decline from its $550,000 high. These are meaningful adjustments, but they represent a normalization rather than a collapse. As affordability improves, more buyers will return, and pricing will stabilize.
From a long-term perspective, the correction looks healthy. Austin’s 25-year compound appreciation rate sits at 5.07 percent. If today’s median price of $460,000 marks the bottom, the city would likely return to its $550,000 peak value in about 46 months, or by mid-2029, assuming steady appreciation. This estimate aligns with Austin’s historical recovery pace after major run-ups in valuation.
Price trends are diverging between market segments. The bottom 25th percentile of homes saw a 0.61 percent decline in price and a 2.12 percent decrease in price per square foot. Meanwhile, the top 25th percentile rose 6.56 percent in price and 3.49 percent in price per square foot. The luxury and upper-tier market remains more stable, driven by higher-credit buyers and cash transactions, while the entry-level segment continues to struggle under affordability constraints and higher borrowing costs.
Regional trends show uneven outcomes. Out of 29 tracked cities, seven posted year-over-year price increases while 22 declined. Well-established areas with stable job bases and amenities, such as Cedar Park and parts of Northwest Austin, have held firm. In contrast, Liberty Hill, Bastrop, and San Marcos are showing notable slowdowns with rising months of inventory. This uneven performance reinforces that the 2025 Austin housing forecast depends heavily on local economic conditions and price positioning within each submarket.
The Market Flow Score (MFS), which combines several key indicators into one benchmark, has dropped to 4.68, compared to the historical average of 6.59. A lower score indicates slower turnover and reduced market efficiency. This confirms what agents and consumers are feeling: homes are taking longer to sell, and the market is functioning at a slower rhythm.
All these data points paint a clear picture of a market in transition. Austin is no longer experiencing the frenzied competition of 2021, but it is also not in distress. Instead, it is returning to historical norms of balance, with inventory growth, modest price adjustments, and longer marketing times. The city’s job growth, in-migration, and overall economic fundamentals remain intact, giving confidence that once affordability improves or mortgage rates ease, demand will gradually strengthen again.
For buyers, this environment represents opportunity. Inventory is plentiful, sellers are more flexible, and negotiation terms have improved. For sellers, success depends on understanding where the market has moved. Correct pricing, professional presentation, and realistic expectations are key to standing out. And for agents, staying data-driven is critical. The ability to interpret these numbers and guide clients with clarity is now the difference between frustration and success.
Austin’s housing market has entered a new equilibrium, defined not by urgency but by information and precision. The opportunity now belongs to those who understand where the market truly stands.
