Austin’s housing market remains supply-heavy as activity slows heading into the final months of 2025.
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Austin’s housing market continues to show signs of imbalance as inventory builds and buyer activity trails behind. As of November 6, 2025, there are 15,821 active residential listings across the Austin area, up 15.1 percent from last year and just below this summer’s peak of 18,146. More than half of these listings, 58.6 percent, have experienced at least one price drop, showing that sellers are adjusting to a softer demand environment. The data paints a clear picture that Austin’s housing market is still working through excess inventory, and that imbalance is placing steady downward pressure on pricing momentum.
The Activity Index, a measure of overall market movement, now sits at 19.2 percent, down from 22.3 percent a year ago. This decline confirms that activity has slowed across both resale and new construction segments. New homes are performing slightly better with a 25.7 percent Activity Index, while resale properties have slipped to just 16.5 percent, solidly in contraction territory. In practical terms, this means resale sellers are facing fewer showings, longer days on market, and more competition from builders who can adjust pricing and incentives quickly. For buyers, this environment provides greater leverage and choice, but also signals that patience and strategic timing could yield even better opportunities as the year closes out.
Pending listings, a leading indicator of buyer demand, stand at 3,755, down nearly 5 percent compared to last year. Cumulative pending contracts for 2025 total 38,357, a 7.5 percent year-over-year decline, even as cumulative new listings have increased slightly by 0.6 percent. The relationship between new listings and pending contracts tells a deeper story. The current New Listing to Pending Ratio is 0.63, meaning that for every 100 new listings hitting the market, only 63 are going under contract. Historically, Austin’s 25-year average for this metric is 0.82, which shows how far below normal demand levels have fallen. With 7,291 more new listings than pendings year-to-date, the market remains tilted toward oversupply, a condition that will likely persist through the winter months.
Months of Inventory (MOI) reinforces this conclusion. The market currently sits at 5.61 months of supply, up nearly 15 percent from 4.88 months a year ago. This places most of the region in a neutral to buyer-advantage zone, where pricing tends to stabilize or decline slightly rather than accelerate. Nearly half of the cities tracked in the metro area now fall into neutral conditions, while 22 percent of zip codes have shifted firmly into buyer control, where inventory exceeds 270 days. For sellers, this means that pricing accurately from the start and minimizing time on market is critical. Overpricing remains one of the fastest ways to lose momentum in this climate, particularly as new listings continue to outpace contract activity.
Sales volume data adds another layer of confirmation. For November, Austin recorded approximately 2,303 closed sales, bringing the year-to-date total to 27,892 homes sold, down 3.3 percent from the same period in 2024. While that figure remains about 7.8 percent above the long-term historical average, the pace of turnover per capita has weakened. There have been 1,089 homes sold per 100,000 residents, which is 20.5 percent below the historical benchmark. The absorption rate, which measures how quickly active listings convert to closed sales, sits at just 16.3 percent, roughly half of its long-term norm of 31.7 percent. In short, the market is moving slower than usual, with more listings sitting unsold for longer stretches.
Pricing metrics continue to show a measured correction from the 2022 peak. The average sold price in November is $612,679, down roughly $69,000 or 10.1 percent from the May 2022 high of $681,939. The median sold price, a more stable indicator of the typical transaction, is now $460,000, down 16.4 percent from the same peak period. That is a $90,000 drop from the market’s top, bringing prices back to levels last seen in early 2021. Notably, when compared to 36 months ago, the median price has returned to almost zero growth, suggesting the correction has effectively neutralized three years of appreciation. Austin’s 25-year compound appreciation rate of 5.07 percent remains intact, meaning that if the market were to resume normal appreciation from today’s median, it would take approximately 46 months, or until August 2029, to return to the previous peak of $550,000.
The price recovery gap is not uniform across the market. The top 25 percent of homes by price have posted a 5.7 percent year-over-year gain, while the bottom 25 percent have declined by about 1.5 percent. This difference suggests that higher-end properties are maintaining stronger value retention, supported by limited supply and more stable buyer demographics, while lower and mid-tier segments face greater affordability challenges and tighter financing constraints. The split between these tiers is likely to persist into early 2026, particularly as higher mortgage rates and property taxes continue to weigh on entry-level buyers.
The Market Flow Score (MFS), a composite measure of how efficiently the housing market converts listings into sales, currently stands at 4.58, well below its historical average of 6.59. This metric integrates multiple turnover factors, such as the active-to-sold ratio and the velocity of demand relative to supply. A lower MFS signals a sluggish market with slower absorption and less urgency among buyers. Combined with the weak absorption rate and elevated price reduction rate, the data confirms that Austin remains in a late-stage correction cycle, not yet transitioning to recovery.
For sellers, the message is clear. The market rewards realism. With almost 59 percent of listings already reduced, price leadership matters more than ever. Sellers who anticipate market shifts rather than react to them are the ones still finding buyers. For buyers, the data indicates a market full of choice, where negotiation leverage is steadily improving. Properties with longer days on market and multiple reductions often signal motivated sellers. Investors should view this phase as a transitional window where yields and acquisition opportunities improve ahead of the next growth cycle. Markets with five to six months of supply have historically represented the turning point between value compression and the next phase of gradual appreciation.
The Austin housing forecast through early 2026 points toward continued stabilization, not collapse. Inventory growth has slowed since mid-year, suggesting that supply could plateau this winter. However, with demand still lagging, prices are unlikely to rise meaningfully until the Activity Index climbs back above 25 percent, signaling equilibrium. Affordability remains a major gating factor. Even with the median price down 16 percent from the peak, monthly payments remain elevated due to mortgage rates near 6 percent. The market may need additional time and income growth before affordability ratios improve enough to trigger the next expansion phase.
From a real estate strategy standpoint, this is a market of patience and precision. Buyers can afford to be selective but should not expect across-the-board discounts, as pricing declines are now concentrated in specific zip codes and product types. Sellers should invest in presentation, pricing accuracy, and proactive adjustments to stay ahead of market perception. Agents who communicate these shifts with data-backed clarity, referencing inventory, Activity Index trends, and absorption ratios, will continue to earn trust as market conditions evolve.
Austin’s housing market in November 2025 is defined by high inventory, subdued demand, and selective strength at the top end of the price spectrum. The data points toward continued price moderation through the winter, with localized opportunities for both buyers and sellers depending on how quickly inventory clears. The long-term outlook remains positive, driven by population growth, employment diversity, and Austin’s economic base. The market remains neutral to softening, but the seeds of stabilization are already forming beneath the surface.
