The Austin housing market continues to shift in favor of buyers as supply builds and sales pace slows, marking one of the most defined transitions since the post-pandemic correction began.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 4, 2025.
Active residential listings now stand at 15,870, a 14.9% increase from this time last year and just 2,276 below the June 2025 peak. Nearly 59% of all homes on the market have already had at least one price reduction, reflecting growing seller competition and price sensitivity among buyers. Pending contracts are down 3.8% year over year, confirming a cooling in demand even as new listings remain elevated—45,232 homes have been listed so far this year, up 5.9% from 2024 and more than 24% above the long-term average. The result is an Austin real estate landscape defined by higher inventory, slower turnover, and wider price gaps between asking and sold values.
The Activity Index—a leading measure of real-time market velocity—has declined to 19.3%, down from 22.2% last year. This drop is significant because it highlights how quickly momentum has shifted away from sellers. The resale market sits at just 16.56%, squarely in the contraction zone, while new construction remains more active at 25.99%. Across the Austin housing market, 33 ZIP codes are in contraction territory and another 20 are in crisis, indicating a clear imbalance between supply and demand. In simple terms, homes are sitting longer, and sellers are chasing the market downward to attract buyers.
The Monthly New Listing-to-Pending Ratio currently sits at 0.72, which means only 72 of every 100 new listings are going under contract. The 25-year average for this ratio is 0.82, underscoring how much more supply-heavy conditions have become. The gap between new and pending listings—7,274 so far this year—is the widest since 2011, confirming that Austin’s housing market has decisively moved beyond a brief summer rebound and into a late-cycle slowdown.
Months of Inventory, a key measure of supply pressure, has risen from 4.91 a year ago to 5.63 today—a 14.6% increase year over year. This places the market just below the six-month threshold traditionally viewed as a balanced environment. Within that average, however, local markets are diverging sharply. Austin proper sits near 4.9 months, but surrounding areas like Lago Vista (8.4), Marble Falls (7.6), and Burnet (10.1) are deep in buyer-control territory. Only a handful of ZIP codes—such as southwest Austin’s 78739 and Cedar Park—remain below three months of inventory, still reflecting faster-moving segments tied to schools and established neighborhoods.
The overall Market Flow Score for Austin real estate is 4.38, well below the historical average of 6.59. This index blends active-to-sold ratios, supply velocity, and absorption efficiency to measure how effectively inventory is being absorbed. A score below 5 typically signals a sluggish market where buyers have the upper hand. The Absorption Rate, another measure of demand strength, confirms this with a reading of 15.97% compared to a historical average near 31.7%. Simply put, homes are selling at about half the normal pace, and listings that linger beyond their first 30 days are requiring sharper price adjustments to compete.
Pricing continues to reflect a gradual but steady correction. The average sold price in October was $595,500, down 12.7% from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price is $437,045, representing a 20.5% drop—about $113,000—from that same peak. While these declines appear steep, they mark a necessary normalization following an unsustainable surge in 2021–2022. Median prices are now roughly 7% lower than they were three years ago, bringing affordability back within reach for some buyers but still well above pre-2020 levels. For perspective, Austin’s long-term compound appreciation rate over the past 25 years is 4.86%, meaning if today’s median of $437,045 grows at that historical pace, it would take until late 2030 to recover to the prior high of roughly $552,000.
Sales volume tells the same story of deceleration. The number of sold homes in October totaled 2,266, with cumulative year-to-date closings at 25,536—down 3.6% from last year. On a per-capita basis, that equals 998 sales per 100,000 residents, 21% below Austin’s historical average. Realtor productivity metrics also show stagnation, with 1,375 sales per 1,000 agents year to date, flat from last year but still well below historical norms. This data underscores how the Austin market is rebalancing after years of unsustainable expansion—there are more agents, more listings, and fewer buyers ready to transact at 2022 price levels.
For sellers, this environment demands strategic realism. Pricing ahead of the curve, offering concessions, and focusing on presentation are essential. The buyers in the market today are not emotionally driven—they are financially cautious and data-aware. With nearly six months of inventory available, buyers have the flexibility to negotiate and walk away if a home doesn’t align with value. For agents, this shift means sharpening market expertise, leaning on data from the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing, and preparing clients for longer timelines. Listings that receive activity in the first 14 days are the ones priced appropriately for current demand; those that linger will increasingly fall into price-reduction cycles.
For buyers, the tide has turned in their favor, though patience is still required. Mortgage rates remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, but competition is far lighter. Price corrections are most visible in the resale market—particularly in suburban zip codes that overexpanded during the boom. Well-positioned buyers can now negotiate seller-paid closing costs, interest-rate buydowns, and other incentives that were virtually unheard of two years ago. The difference between the top and bottom quartiles of the market tells the story: luxury listings (top 25th percentile) are still gaining modestly, up 7.3% in price year over year, while the lower quartile continues to soften with a 1.6% decline. This polarization reflects an affordability ceiling rather than a full market collapse—higher-end inventory remains active, while entry-level demand struggles under high payments and limited credit flexibility.
For investors, Austin’s market offers a mixed picture. Cash-flow opportunities remain tight given current prices and rental softness, but the combination of elevated supply and lower competition presents strategic entry points for long-term investors who understand the market’s cyclicality. The projected five-year recovery window to return to previous peak values aligns with Austin’s historical pattern of steady, compounded appreciation following each correction. For investors with patience and liquidity, the next two years are likely to provide the best acquisition environment since 2011.
As we move deeper into the fourth quarter, the trajectory is clear: the Austin housing market is decelerating, not collapsing. Supply is rising, absorption is weakening, and prices are finding their new equilibrium. This phase of normalization is essential to rebuild affordability and set the foundation for the next growth cycle. Agents who stay informed, price realistically, and communicate market context to clients will thrive in this new environment defined by transparency, negotiation, and data-driven decision-making.
